model CHIME_GTRI_IR:
let s_Initial = 999.0
let i_Initial = 10.0
let r_Initial = 0.0
state Susceptible = s_Initial
state Infected = i_Initial
state Recovered = r_Initial
let gamma = 1.0 / 14.0
let policy_days0 = 37.0
let policy_days1 = 77.0
parameter contact_rate = 0.05
parameter contact_multiplier = 1 - contact_rate
let total_pop = Susceptible + Infected + Recovered
let beta =
cond:
gamma if time <= policy_days0
gamma + 0.1486983 if time <= policy_days1
gamma + 0.0717734 otherwise
# or
# let beta =
# if time <= policy_days0
# then gamma
# else if time <= policy_days1
# then gamma + 0.1486983
# else
# gamma + 0.0717734
event Infect:
when:
Susceptible > 0.0 and Infected > 0.0
rate:
beta * contact_multiplier * Susceptible * Infected / total_pop
effect:
Susceptible = Susceptible - 1.0
Infected = Infected + 1.0
event Cure:
when:
Infected > 0.0
rate:
gamma * Infected
effect:
Infected = Infected - 1.0
Recovered = Recovered + 1.0